| 1. Identity statement | |
| Reference Type | Conference Paper (Conference Proceedings) |
| Site | mtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br |
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S |
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/iris@1915/2005/05.03.13.47 |
| Last Update | 2005:05.03.03.00.00 (UTC) administrator |
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/iris@1915/2005/05.03.13.47.30 |
| Metadata Last Update | 2022:03.26.18.03.31 (UTC) administrator |
| Secondary Key | INPE-12505-PRE/7807 |
| Citation Key | OliveiraPrak:2002:PrChSu |
| Title | Procedures for the choice of sub-ensemble with better use for the climat forecast  |
| Format | On-line |
| Year | 2002 |
| Secondary Date | 20050503 |
| Access Date | 2024, May 20 |
| Secondary Type | PRE CI |
| Number of Files | 1 |
| Size | 22 KiB |
| 2. Context | |
| Author | 1 Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio de 2 Prakki, Satyamurty |
| Resume Identifier | 1 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JHBE |
| Group | 1 DMA-INPE-MCT-BR 2 DMD-INPE-MCT-BR |
| Affiliation | 1 CPTEC-INPE-Cachoeira Paulista-12630-000-SP-Brasil |
| e-Mail Address | atus@cptec.inpe.br |
| Conference Name | CBS Technical Conference on Data Processing and Forecasting Systems. |
| Conference Location | Cairns - Australia |
| Date | 2-3 Dec. 2002 |
| Publisher | WMO |
| Tertiary Type | Posters |
| Organization | WMO |
| History (UTC) | 2005-05-17 18:40:19 :: fabia -> administrator :: 2008-06-10 21:16:25 :: administrator -> estagiario :: 2010-05-11 16:55:55 :: estagiario -> administrator :: 2022-03-26 18:03:31 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2002 |
| 3. Content and structure | |
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master |
| Content Stage | completed |
| Transferable | 1 |
| Content Type | External Contribution |
| Abstract | This paper addresses important questions about ensemble climate forecasting system. Given an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ensemble run with a large number of independent integrations, is there a subensemble whose mean, in principle, improves the forecast performance? Is there a way to identify a priori (before running the forecast integrations) a subensemble whose mean can possibly give a performance better or equal to the performance of the whole ensemble? The model is essentially run in forecast mode with fixed SST anomalies and predicted SST anomalies using 25 members. To answer these questions, a subgroup of members with the anomaly correlation coefficient (CCA) equal to or greater than CCA of the complete ensemble during the spin up period are chosen. The mean of the forecasts based on this subset is found to have a spatial correlation with the observed precipitation of the same order of the complete ensemble. The size of this subset is found to be around 9 members. This method can be employed as a useful tool for economizing the computer time and to obtain early seasonal forecasts. The methods employed in this study can be extended to other regions of the globe, because the best subset and its size can differ from region to region, from season to season and from year to year. |
| Area | MET |
| Arrangement 1 | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDMD > Procedures for the... |
| Arrangement 2 | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção até 2016 > DMA > Procedures for the... |
| doc Directory Content | access |
| source Directory Content | there are no files |
| agreement Directory Content | there are no files |
| 4. Conditions of access and use | |
| data URL | http://urlib.net/ibi/sid.inpe.br/iris@1915/2005/05.03.13.47 |
| zipped data URL | http://urlib.net/zip/sid.inpe.br/iris@1915/2005/05.03.13.47 |
| Language | en |
| Target File | Oliveira_Procedures for the choice.pdf.pdf |
| User Group | administrator fabia |
| Visibility | shown |
| Copy Holder | SID/SCD |
| 5. Allied materials | |
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SKC35 8JMKD3MGPCW/46JKC45 |
| Citing Item List | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21/2012/07.13.14.49.24 1 |
| Host Collection | cptec.inpe.br/walmeida/2003/04.25.17.12 |
| 6. Notes | |
| Empty Fields | archivingpolicy archivist booktitle callnumber copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel dissemination documentstage doi edition editor electronicmailaddress identifier isbn issn keywords label lineage mark mirrorrepository nextedition notes numberofvolumes orcid pages parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project publisheraddress readergroup readpermission rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarymark serieseditor session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark type url versiontype volume |
| 7. Description control | |
| e-Mail (login) | marciana |
| update | |